Ixabiso lombhobho weStainless Steel: Uhlalutyo oluBanzi lweMarike kunye neSikhokelo sokuthenga sika-2025

Eyaziwa njengomdlali ophambili kwindawo yentengiso yemibhobho yentsimbi yehlabathi ukusukela ngo-2025, i-AISI 316L imibhobho yensimbi engenasici yemilinganiselo yehlabathi ye-50.80 mm ukuya kwi-63.50 mm ububanzi (ebone ixabiso layo linyuka kunye / okanye lihla) liye lathambeka ngokungazithembi kakhulu, ngaphambi kokuqinisa. Amaxabiso emibhobho yentsimbi engatyiwayo ye-14in STD ngoku kufuneka abonwe kwangaphambili ukuba aphele ngendlela eyandayo, ehamba naphi na phakathi kwe-15.0% kunye ne-21.5% kwiminyaka yoo-1980 ngaphezulu kocatshulo luka-2020, ukuphindaphindwa kwabo ngoku kube kanye phantse zonke iiveki ezili-18/19. Kubotshelelwe ukuthengisa phantsi kwemijikelo emikhulu kakhulu, ukuqikelelwa kwexabiso ngasentla kuya kuba kumgangatho ophezulu kunye nokuphikisana. Nangona kunjalo, ukugquma eludongeni kuye kwafunyanwa ngokuqaqambileyo kwiimveliso zemibhobho yentsimbi engatyiwayo ngaphantsi kwe-12/13in ububanzi kwi-STD.

Uhlolo lweMveliso

Imibhobho yentsimbi equlathe iityhubhu ze-cylindrical ezivulekileyo, ezenziwe ngeealloyi zentsimbi ezikwaziyo ukumelana nomhlwa ezinobuncinci be-10.5% yechromium, zizixhobo ezibaluleke kakhulu kwimizi-mveliso edume ngokomelela kwazo, ucoceko, kunye nokuxhathisa kwi-oxidation.

AmaBanga kunye neMigangatho eqhelekileyo

• I-ASTM A312/A213: Imibhobho yentsimbi engenamthungo kunye ne-welded austenitic (umgangatho wase-US)
• EN 10217/10216: Umgangatho waseYurophu weetyhubhu zetsimbi
• I-JIS G3459/G3463: Umgangatho woshishino waseJapan kwimibhobho yentsimbi engenasici

Amanye amabanga adumileyo:

• 304/304L (1.4301/1.4307): Ibanga le-austenitic lenjongo ngokubanzi
• 316/316L (1.4401/1.4404): Ibakala laselwandle kunye nekhemikhali elixhathisayo
• I-321 (1.4541): Ibakala elizinzileyo kwizicelo zobushushu obuphezulu
• i-duplex 2205 (1.4462): Amandla aphezulu anganyangeki kwi-corrosion

Ukuqulunqwa kweMichiza eqhelekileyo

Iipropati zoomatshini ezibalulekileyo

• Amandla Amandla: 515 ukuya kuma-750 (kuxhomekeke kwibakala)
• Unikeze Amandla: I-205 ukuya kwi-550
• Udibaniso: 35 ukuya kwi-45% (ubuncinci)
• Ukuthambisa: 150 ukuya 220 HB (Brinell)
• Ukushisa okusebenzayo: -196 ukuya +800°C, kuxhomekeke kwibakala

Imilinganiselo eqhelekileyo

• I diameter yangaphandle: 6mm ukuya 914 mm (1⁄4″ ukuya 36″)
• Ubungakanani bodonga: 0.5 ukuya ku-50 mm (iShedyuli ye-5S ukuya kwi-XXS)
• Ubude obuqhelekileyo: 6-Imitha (20 iinyawo) single random; Iimitha ezili-12 (iinyawo ezingama-40) ziphindwe kabini ngokungacwangciswanga
• Ukugqitywa komphezulu: I-Annealed eqaqambileyo (BA), i-Pickled, i-Electropolished, i-Brushed

Ukusetyenziswa okuphambili

• I-oyile neGesi: Abacoci, amaqonga e-Offshore, imigca yokudosa iiChemical
• Ukutya & nesiselo: Izityalo zobisi, iiBreweries, amayeza
• Uyilo: Umzila kaloliwe, inkxaso yoLwakhiwo, iinkqubo zeFaçade
• Imoto: Iinkqubo zokukhupha, iintambo ze-Fuel (ingakumbi kwibakala le-304/409L)
• Intlama kunye nePhepha: Ukuthuthwa kweekhemikhali ezonakalisayo, imigca yeDigester
• Owaselwandle: Ukukhutshwa kwetyuwa emanzini olwandle, Iinkqubo zokubhobhoza ngeenqanawa.

Ixabiso leHlabathi ngeKilogram (Umfanekiso wangoku)

Amaxabiso emibhobho yentsimbi engenastainless ayonwabele umlinganiselo othile wozinzo ukususela ekuqaleni konyaka, ngoku inyakazela kufutshane ne-equilibrium ukususela ngoNovemba ka-2025. Amaxabiso ehlabathi akutshanje ombhobho oqhelekileyo we-304 wombhobho ongenamthungo (isiseko se-FOB) aphakathi kwe-$4.20 kunye ne-5.80 / kg ngokuxhomekeke kubukhulu bawo, ukuthengwa, kunye nokubonelela abathengi.

Amaxabiso eMarike asuka kwimithombo ethembekileyo

• Imarike yeentsimbi zaseShanghai (SMM) – 12 Novemba 2025
• 304 (Ø25–100mm): $4.50–$5.20/kg (FOB Shanghai/ Tianjin)
• Argus Media - Novemba 8, 2025
• 316L S40 umbhobho odityanisiweyo: $5.80–$6.40/kg (FOB European Mills)
• MEPS World Steel Insight – Q4 2025
• 304 umbhobho odityanisiweyo (ubukhulu obuqhelekileyo): $4.20–$4.90/kg (FOB Asian port)
• IPlatts Steel Markets yonke imihla - Novemba 10, 2025
• Ikhoyili yebenchmark engama-304 (isiseko sokusila): $2,850–$3,100/toni ($2.85–$3.10/kg)

IiNtlawulo ze-CIF zamaZiko amakhulu

• I-Rotterdam (eYurophu): $250-350/tonne (+$0.25-0.35/kg) ekungenisweni ngaphandle kweAsia
• Los Angeles (West Coast US): $ 180-280 / tonne intlawulo yolungiselelo
• IDubai (kuMbindi Mpuma): $ 120-200 / tonne kwimvelaphi Indian / Chinese
• I-Shanghai (yasekhaya yaseTshayina): Ixabiso lesiseko kunye + $ 100-150 yokuthumela ngaphandle inyama yenkomo

Phawula: Ukwenziwa kwemibhobho ngokuqhelekileyo yongeza i-35-65% yeprimiyamu ngaphezu kwamaxabiso ekhoyili eqengqeleke emcaba ngenxa ye-welding/ukubunjwa ngokungenamthungo, uvavanyo, kunye neendleko zokugqiba.

Intengiso yeNgingqi kunye neXabiso kwiiMarike eziphambili

Imbonakalo yommandla

I-China ngoyena mvelisi mkhulu kunye nomsebenzisi kwiplanethi. Ehlabathini, umgangatho ubekwe kwiindleko ezinqunywe yimveliso yaseTshayina. Kutshanje, imithetho yemo yendalo esingqongileyo ichaze ukuba oomatshini abakhulu babangelwa yimveliso yaseTshayina.

I-Indiya ijike yaba ngumthengisi welizwe ngaphandle kwezoqoqosho ogqwesileyo ekuboneleleni ngemibhobho edityanisiweyo-egqwesileyo eTshayina-ngenxa yeendleko eziphantsi zabasebenzi kunye namandla amakhulu emveliso.

Amaxabiso e-EU angaphezulu kwisiqinisekiso kunye namaqumrhu ovavanyo (PED, uphawu lweCE) kunye neentlawulo zemida ezibuyisela umva ukukhutshwa okukhulu kwangaphandle.

Amaxabiso ensimbi ahlala e-sky-rocketing e-US, ngenxa yee-oda zeCandelo le-232, iintlawulo zetsimbi kunye ne-aluminium zibe yi-25% kunye ne-10%, ngokulandelanayo, eziye zavakaliswa kwi-2018 kwaye ziya kunyuka ukuya kwi-2025, kunye ne-no-go-for-anto ikhululiwe kule nto.

Ukuguquguquka kweXabiso ngokwembali (Iinyanga ezingama-24 ezidlulileyo)

INyanga i-Avareji yoMndilili weNyanga (304 uMbhobho ongenamthungo, FOB Asia)

USD/kg
7.0 |                          *
6.5 |                     *   / \
6.0 |                *   /     \ \
5.5 |           *   / \ /       \ *
5.0 |      *   / \ /   *         \   *
4.5 | *   / \ /   *               \ / \
4.0 |/ \ /   *                     *   *---*
    +------------------------------------------
    N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O
    2023          2024                     2025

Iinkcukacha-manani eziphambili:

• Incopho: $6.80/kg (2024 Matshi)
• Umkhombe: $4.10/kg (Novemba 2023)
• Okwangoku: $4.85/kg (2025 Novemba)
• Ixesha leenyanga ezingama-24: + 18.3%
• Ixesha leenyanga ezingama-12: -12.7%

Abaqhubi beXabiso elikhulu (2023-2025)

• Ixabiso leNickel (Q1 2024): I-nickel ye-LME ibethe i-$ 22,000 / tonne ngo-Matshi 2024 ngenxa yokuvalwa kwe-Indonesian yokuthumela ngaphandle, ukutyhala amaxabiso emibhobho yensimbi engenasici kwi-28% QOQ.
• Ukucotha kwePropati yamaTshayina (Q2-Q3 2024): Ukutshona kwe-Evergrande kunye necandelo lokwakha kuthomalalise imfuno yangaphakathi ethotyiweyo, okukhokelela ekulahlweni kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle okuqatha kunye ne-15% yokulungiswa kwamaxabiso ehlabathi.
• Ukuphunyezwa kweRhafu yeCarbon Border (CBAM) ye-EU (Okthobha 2023): Kwinqanaba lokuqala lokunika ingxelo, iindleko zokuthotyelwa zongeze i-premium ye-8-12% kwizinto eziqinisekisiweyo zekhabhoni ephantsi.
• amatyala
• Imisebenzi yase-Indiya echasene nokuLahla (Agasti 2024): I-12.5% ​​yemisebenzi ekuthengisweni kwentsimbi epholileyo eqengqelekayo yaseTshayina yaphambukisa ikhonkco lonikezelo, iqinisa okwethutyana iimarike zaseAsia.
• ULungiso lweeNdleko zaMandla (2025): Ukurhoxiswa kwamaxabiso egesi yendalo yaseYurophu ukuya kwinqanaba lengxaki yangaphambili ngokucutha malunga ne-10-15% eyenziwe ngeendleko zemveliso kunciphisa iindleko zokwenza umbhobho. Intlanzi emhlophe engenamafutha okanye enamafutha akhanyayo ineprotheyini kwaye iqulethe zonke iintlobo ze-amino acids.

Ixesha elifutshane kunye neeNdlela zeXabiso zeXesha elide

Kwiinyanga ezintathu ukuya kwezintandathu ezilandelayo (Q4 2025 ukuya Q1 2026)

Uqikelelo: Iphakathi ukuya kwi-bearish kancinane.

Abaqhubi abaphambili bolu qikelelo:

Uluhlu lwe-nickel luqhubeka luhlala luphezulu kwiitoni ezingama-280,000 kwindawo yokugcina impahla eLondon. Olu luhlu lwempahla olungafunekiyo lunokuthomalalisa ngokumandla ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okunokwenzeka.

UNyaka oMtsha waseTshayina uza kuzisa umonakalo okwethutyana ngoJanuwari ka-2026 ngenxa yokuphuma kwemali, njengoko iibhanki zihlala zivaliwe eTshayina ngeeholide.

Ulindelo loBusika obuthambileyo obuqhutywa ngu-El Nino kuphela luya kunciphisa kakhulu imfuno yokufudumeza, kunye nokubuyisela umva iindleko zokusetyenziswa kwabavelisi bentsimbi engenamandla.

Umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali ungadlala ngokubalulekileyo ukuze uqhubele phambili umngcipheko kwimfuno yolwakhiwo ukuba izinga lenzala liyenyuka liyinyaniso.

Uqikelelo lwexabiso eliqikelelweyo lemibhobho engama-304 engenamthungo edada phakathi kwe-$4.50–5.30 ngekhilogram, ukuya kwikota yokuqala ka-2026, gcina umothuko kwi-geopolitics.

Umbono wexesha elide (2026-2028)

Imiba yoLwakhiwo exhasa amaxabiso

• Utshintsho Lwentsimbi eluhlaza: Ngokwembono ye-CRU, imveliso ye-carbon stainless ephantsi iyakongeza i-$150–$250/tonne ($0.15–$0.25/kg) ngo-2026 njengoko ukwamkelwa kwe-EAF kukhawuleza kunye nexabiso lekhredithi yekhabhoni.
• I-Infrastructure Mega Projects: I-'World Steel Association' iqikelela malunga ne-4.2% ye-CAGR yemfuno yensimbi engenasici ukuya kwi-2028. Oku kuya kubhekiswa kwiziseko ezingundoqo zamanzi, njengoko kuya kubakho inkcitho eqikelelwayo yehlabathi ye-2.1 yeetriliyoni zeedola, ekwachithwa ngokubhekiselele kufakelo lwamandla avuselelekayo kunye nothungelwano lwemibhobho ye-hydrogen.
• Udibaniso lonikezelo: Sele, ukuya kuthi ga kwi-15% yomthamo ongasebenziyo uvaliwe e-China ngumgaqo-nkqubo 'wekhabhoni ezimbini', nokuvalwa okungaphezulu kulindeleke ngo-2027.

Imingcipheko yeBearish:

• Ubonelelo ngeNgcaciso yeNickel eIndonesia: Malunga neetoni ezingama-400,000 ngonyaka zenikeli zinokubonelelwa ukusuka kumthamo omkhulu wokusetyenzwa kwentsimbi ekrwada emva konyaka ka-2027.
• Izoyikiso zokuTshintsha: Inzuzo ephezulu yesabelo kwiintsimbi zekhabhoni ezigqunywe ngokugquma (kwizicelo apho kukho umba ophantsi)

Uluvo lweNgcali:

• Inkonzo yentsimbi ye-CRU (Okthobha 2025): "Silindele amaxabiso asisiseko angama-304 ukuya kumyinge we-3,200 yeedola ngetoni nganye ngo-2026 kwaye anyuke aye kwi-3,500 yeedola ngetoni nganye ngo-2028 njengoko iRhafu yeStripe kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yemozulu ekufutshane iya kuhamba kwihlabathi."
• Imbonakalo yentsimbi yoluhlu olufutshane (Epreli 2025): "Ngo-2026, imfuno yensimbi engenasici iya kufumana malunga ne-3.8% ngenxa yeziseko ezingundoqo zase-Asia-Pacific kunye neeprojekthi zenguqu yamandla aseYurophu."

Iingcebiso zokuthenga kunye nokuBiyela koMngcipheko

IiNcedisi zokuThenga eziSebenzayo

Ubungakanani obuNcinane boMyalelo (MOQ):

• Amashishini aseAsia: I-MOQ eqhelekileyo inokuba yi-5-10 yeetoni zobungakanani obuqhelekileyo, kodwa inokuba phezulu kwiispekthi zesiko.
• Abasasazi baseYurophu/US: Ngamanye amaxesha thengisa i-500 kg ukuya kwiitoni ezi-2 kwii-odolo ze-spot kunye ne-15-25% yeprimiyamu yexabiso.

Ixesha lokukhokhela:

• Kwizinto zesitokhwe (ubungakanani obuqhelekileyo be-304/316L): iiveki ezi-2-4 ze-ex-works
• Ukwenziwa ngokwezifiso (ii-alloys ezikhethekileyo, ukunyamezela okuqinileyo): iiveki ze-8-16
• Yongeza iiveki ze-4-8 zokuthumela phesheya (ukusuka e-Asia ukuya e-EU/US)

Immimiselo yokuhlawula:

• Ixesha lokurhweba eliqhelekileyo yi-30% yediphozithi, i-70% ngokumelene nekopi ye-B / L yee-odolo zamazwe ngamazwe
• Amaqela arhweba rhoqo angasayina i-LC xa ebonwa okanye imiqathango yentlawulo yeentsuku ezingama-60.
• Kurhwebo lwamabala, kudla ngokufuna intlawulo epheleleyo yangaphambili okanye imali xa ithelekiswa nemigaqo yoxwebhu (CAD).

Amaqhinga okuNciphisa uMngcipheko weXabiso

• -Izibhambathiso zaNgaphandle: Lungisa ixabiso kwiinyanga ezi-3-12 kwangaphambili kwizixhobo ezinkulu ezinomthamo wonyaka ongekho ngaphantsi kweetoni ezili-100.
• LME Nickel Futures: Nge-nickel equka i-60-70% yeendleko ze-304 / 316 izinto eziluhlaza, iikontrakthi ze-nickel ze-LME zeenyanga ezi-3 zinokunciphisa uqikelelo lwe-50-60% yale nto iguquguqukayo.
• Izivumelwano zoKhuseleko lweXabiso loMboneleli (iiPPAs): Abanye abaqulunqi bathobela umgaqo-nkqubo wokuphononongwa kwexabiso lekota ±5% edla ngokuthandwa ngamashishini okutya rhoqo.
• Ugcino Lwezinto: Ukuze uhlale ulungile, umntu onokuhlala egcina iiveki ezimbalwa zesitokhwe, malunga neeveki ezi-6-8, phakathi kwexabiso eliphantsi kunye nelona lifanelekileyo kubaboneleli abanomthamo wokugcina kunye nemfuno ehambelanayo.

Ukuqinisekiswa koMgangatho iiFlegi eziBomvu

Iimpawu zesilumkiso seMpatho eNgaphantsi komgangatho:

• Amaxabiso angaphezulu kwe-20% ngaphantsi kwemarike: Kusenokwenzeka ukuba izinto non-certified, hayi phantsi unyango olufanelekileyo ubushushu, okanye ukucela isiqinisekiso sobuqhophololo umgangatho, okt, Mill Test Certificate (MTC)
• Akukho kulandeleka: Imibhobho ehloniphekileyo ifakwe ngelaser ngamanani awo obushushu; abo bangaphawuliyo babeka imingcipheko ephezulu
• Ukuhanjiswa okukhawulezayo ngokugqithisileyo: Amaxesha okwenyani okusila awaxoxiswana; ukuba ithe yakhawuleza, ngoko ke uninzi lweempahla lungumxube owanelisayo wokwaliwa kwesitokhwe.
• Ubizo lwealloyi olungenalwazi: Ukungacacisi ibakala langempela lensimbi engenasici (umzekelo, 304, 316L, njl.), ngokuchasene nokusebenzisa nje "insimbi engenasici", luphawu lwesilumkiso.
• Akukho siqinisekiso somntu wesithathu: Gxininisa kuvavanyo lwe-PMI (ukuchongwa kwezinto ezilungileyo) kunye novavanyo olutshabalalisayo lwe-tensile ziilebhu ezivunyiweyo (SGS, TÜV, Bureau Veritas).
• Eyona ndlela yokuSebenza: Soloko unyanzelisa ukuba i-EN 10204 3.1 izatifikethi (izatifikethi zovavanyo lokusila) zibonelelwe, kwaye uphumeze iitshekhi ze-PMI, usebenzisa abahlalutyi be-XRF abaphathwa ngesandla kuvavanyo olungenamkhethe kwizicelo ezibalulekileyo (iinqanawa zoxinzelelo, izinto ezisetyenziswa ekutyeni, njl. njl.).

isiphelo

Indawo yokugqibela yekota ka-2025 ixhomekeke kumbhobho wensimbi engenasici, ecebisa imarike apho amaxabiso afanelekileyo akhuphisana nentsalela kwelinye icala, ngokuchasene neendlela ezibango zexesha elide ezivela kwiindlela zokususa ikhabhoni. Abarhwebi bangathanda iithegi zamaxabiso azinzileyo amalunga ne-4.20 yeedola ukuya kwi-5.80/kg yeendidi ezingama-304, nangona zijongene nezithintelo ezithatha ixesha elininzi zentengiso efana neerhafu kunye nokubambelela komgangatho wokukhangela. Iinketho zokuthengwa kwempahla ngokobuchule ziyindlela eya phambili, ukusuka ekudibaneni ukuya kwiintlobo ngeentlobo zokukhangela izinto ukuya kowona mgangatho ungqongqo wokuhlola ukujongana neendleko kunye nomngcipheko.

Imithombo Ecatshulweyo :

• Imarike yeentsimbi zaseShanghai (SMM)
• Ingxelo yeNtsimbi yeArgus
• MEPS International
• IPlatts Steel Markets yonke imihla
• Iqela le-CRU yeNkonzo yeNtsimbi yeNsimbi
• I-World Steel Association

I-Disclaimer: Amaxabiso kunye noqikelelo kweli nqaku libonisa idatha ekhoyo ukusuka nge-5 Novemba 2025, kwaye ingatshintsha ngaphandle kwesaziso. Olu hlalutyo lwenzelwe iinjongo zolwazi kwaye aluquki ingcebiso yezemali, yezomthetho, okanye yorhwebo. Soloko uqinisekisa amaxabiso akhoyo kunye nemiqathango yekontraka ngokuthe ngqo nabanikezeli kunye neenkonzo zamaxabiso eshishini.