Ixabiso leNtsika yeNsimbi engenaStainless: Uhlalutyo oluBanzi lweMarike kunye neSikhokelo sokuthenga sika-2025

Amaxabiso entonga yentsimbi yangoku kufuneka agcinwe phantsi kweliso eliqhubekayo ngabavelisi, abasasazi, kunye neengcali zokuthengwa kwempahla ekufuneka zihambe emanzini aguqukileyo emarike yesinyithi yangoku. Ukuphindaphindeka kwemisebenzi yefektri kwihlabathi jikelele, kudityaniswa nokuguquguquka kweendleko zemathiriyeli ekrwada, kwenza uhlalutyo lwezisombululo malunga nexabiso lentonga yentsimbi ebaluleke kakhulu ekufumaneni izigqibo ngengqiqo. Uhlalutyo lubandakanya ukusasazeka kwamaxabiso entonga yentsimbi kuzo zonke iimarike ezinkulu, ngokufutshane; ukuguquguquka kwembali kumaxabiso; kunye nezicwangciso eziliqili ezicetyisiweyo zokuthenga ezisebenza ukusuka ngo-2025 nangaphaya.

Uhlolo lweMveliso

Imivalo yentsimbi ye-chrome-nickel eqinileyo yimivalo eveliswe kwi-iron-chrome alloys ekwazi ukumelana nomhlwa, kwaye inokufumaneka kwiindawo ezigqityiweyo zokutshisa, ezibandayo, okanye emhlabeni. Ezi zinto zigqwesileyo zezixhobo zoomatshini beofisi, ukwenziwa kwe-fastener, kunye nokusetyenziswa kolwakhiwo kwinani lamashishini.

Uhlobo lwentsimbi:

• Austenitic series: 304/304L (ASTM A276, EN 1.4301), 316/316L (ASTM A479, EN 1.4401/1.4404)
• Uthotho lweFerritic: 430 (ASTM A582, EN 1.4016)
• Uthotho lweMartensitic: 410 (ASTM A276, JIS SUS410)
• Duplex/Super Duplex: 2205 (ASTM A479, EN 1.4462), 2507 (UNS S32750)

Ukuqulunqwa kwemichiza yamaBanga aKhethekileyo (Umzekelo 316L)

• I-Chromium (Cr): 16.0-18.0%
• I-Nickel (Ni): 10.0-14.0%
• I-Molybdenum (Mo): 2.0-3.0%
• Ikhabhoni (C): ≤0.03%
• IManganese (Mn): ≤2.0%
• Intsimbi (Fe): Ukulungelelana

IiPropati zeMechanical zamaBanga aKhethekileyo akwimeko echaziweyo

• Tensile strength: 485–620 MPa
• Uxinzelelo lwesivuno: I-170 MPa
• Uluhlu: ≥40% kwi-50 mm
• Ubunzima: ≤217 HB (Brinell)

Ukuqwalaselwa kobungakanani obuqhelekileyo

Iidayamitha zemivalo engqukuva zihlala zihamba kwindawo ethile ukusuka kwi-6mm ukuya ngaphezulu kwe-300mm; ubude bujikeleza i-3m, 6m, okanye isiko lokusika-ubude. Ukunyamezelana kusenokuba kwi-odolo ye-h9 okanye i-h11 (i-cold-drawn) okanye ihambelana nemigangatho ye-hot-rolled Mill.

Izicelo eziphambili

• Izinto zemoto (iishafti, iziqhoboshi, iinkqubo zamafutha)
• Izixhobo zaselwandle kunye namaqonga aselwandle
• Izixhobo zokulungisa ukutya
• Iivalvu ezinxulumene nemichiza/zepetrochemical kunye neepompo
• Izixhobo zonyango kunye nokufakelwa kotyando
• Izibophelelo ze-aerospace kunye nezinto zesakhiwo.

Ixabiso lehlabathi ngeKilogram

Intengiso yeNgingqi kunye neXabiso kwiiMarike eziphambili

Imibono yeNgingqi:

NgoJuni ka-2025, amaxabiso entsimbi engqukuva yentsimbi yase-US afikelele kwi-6,405 yeedola ngeetoni nganye (i-6.41 yeedola ngekhilogram) ngexesha le-Q2, iphenjelelwa kukuguquguquka kwexabiso lenickel kunye ne-chromium ye-IMARC, ngelixa amaxabiso e-China afikelela kwi- $1,860 ngetoni nganye ye-metric (i-$1.86 ngekhilogram nganye) ngokwexabiso le-IMARC. IYurophu ibone ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuzingisileyo kwiindleko zamandla ezichaphazela uqoqosho lwelitye, ngelixa i-Asiya ibabalwe ngeendleko eziphantsi zokufakwa kwabasebenzi kunye namandla kodwa ukukhula kwiindleko zokuthotyelwa kokusingqongileyo.

Ukuguquguquka kweXabiso ngokwembali (Iinyanga ezingama-24 ezidlulileyo)

Itshathi yexabiso le-ASCII (uMndilili weNyanga, iBanga lama-304, iFOB yaseTshayina)

USD/kg
3.20 |                    *
3.00 |               *   / \
2.80 |          *   / \ /   \
2.60 |     *   / \ /   *     \
2.40 | *  / \ /   *           \   *
2.20 |  \/   *                 \ / \
2.00 |                          *   \___*___
1.80 |                                      \___*___*
     +------------------------------------------------
     N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N
     2023      2024                    2025

Iintshukumo zeXabiso eliPhambili

• Incopho: I-$ 3.15 ngekhilogram nganye ngoMatshi 2024, ihambelana ne-LME saccharification ye-nickel.
• Umkhombe: I-$ 1.72 ngekhilogram, ukususela ngoNovemba 2025 ukuya kuDisemba 2026 - ukuzinza kwangoku.
• Utshintsho lulonke: -45.4% ukusuka phezulu ukuya kumanqanaba angoku.

Abaqhubi beXabiso elikhulu (2024–2025)

1. Ixabiso leNickel (Q1 2024): Amaxabiso enickel e-LME afikelele kwi-$22,000/tonne mark hit ngoMatshi ka-2024 ngenxa yokuvalwa kokuthumela kwamanye amazwe e-Indonesia, ethe yanyusa amaxabiso etyhubhu yentsimbi engenasici nge-28% ngekota, ngokwe-DAPU Metal Materials.
2. Ukucotha kwePropati yamaTshayina (Q2-Q3 2024): I-Evergrande bankruptcy kunye nokucutheka ngenxa yecandelo lolwakhiwo ubunzima kwimfuno yangaphakathi, okukhokelela ekulahlweni phesheya kolwandle kunye ne-15% yolungiso lwexabiso lehlabathi jikelele iDAPU Metal Materials
3. Inkqubo yoLungiso lweKhabhoni ye-EU (Okthobha 2024): Kwimeko ye-DAPU, iindleko zokuthotyelwa kwe-CBAM zisa i-premium ye-8-12% kwizinto eziqinisekisiweyo zekhabhoni ephantsi.
4. Imisebenzi yase-Indiya echasene nokuLahla (Agasti 2024): Ukunyanzeliswa kwemisebenzi eyi-12.5% ​​ekufumaneni impahla evela eTshayina yentsimbi epholileyo eqengqelekayo ilungelelanise ikhonkco lonikezelo ukuze kuqinise ngokufutshane iimarike zaseAsia.
5. Ukwandiswa kweNikel yase-Indonesia (2025): Ukunyuka kozinzo lwexabiso lenickel kubalelwa kumthamo owandisiweyo wokuveliswa kwentsimbi ekrwada yasemva. Oku kungenxa yokuba, ngokusisiseko, akukho mbono unikiweyo uqikelela ixabiso lokuya ngaphaya kweedola ezili-15,000/tonne.

Ixesha elifutshane kunye neeNdlela zeXabiso zeXesha elide

Uqikelelo lweNyanga ezi-3–6 ezilandelayo: Neutral Ukuze Kancinane Bearish

Abaqhubi abaphambili:

• Abaqhubi: Ubuthathaka kwimfuno Imarike yensimbi engenasici kwinqanaba lehlabathi ayizange ibonise iimpawu zokubuyisela kwi-Q3 2025 kunye neemeko zemfuno ezibuthathaka. Kwakhona akukho lindelo lokuguqulwa kwexesha elifutshane. AG Metal Metal
• Uluhlu lwempahla: I-Outokumpu ifumene ukwehla kwe-12% kwiimpahla ezithunyelwayo zaseYurophu ukusuka kwi-Q2 kunye nokwehla okungaphezulu kwe-10% ukusuka kwi-Q3 2024 njengexabiso eliphantsi elidityaniswe ngokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe ase-Asia atsale amaxabiso emveliso ehla kakhulu. AG Metal Metal
• Uzinzo lweNickel: I-Nickel yawa kwinqanaba le-14,880 yeedola / itoni ngoNovemba 14, 2025, ukuhla kwe-3.98% kunyaka-unyaka WOKUTHENGISWA KWEZOQOQOSHO, ukunciphisa iinzuzo
• Ukucotha kweXesha: Ngokuqhelekileyo, i-Q4 ifumana ulwakhiwo oluncinci kunye nomsebenzi wokuvelisa kuzo zonke iimarike zoMntla weHemisphere

Uluhlu lwamaxabiso olulindelekileyo (Q1 2026): $ 1.65-$ 2.10 / kg (304 FOB Asia); $3.00-$3.50/kg (kuMntla Melika)

2026–2028 Imbonakalo: Ngokuphakathi Bullish (Ixesha elide)

Phakathi kwezinto eziphambili zenani lokukhula kolwakhiwo:

• Utshintsho Lwentsimbi eluhlaza: Iiprojekthi ze-CRU ukuba imveliso ye-SS ye-carbon ephantsi iya kufaka i-$ 150 kwi-$ 200 / t (i-$ 0.15-0.20 / kg) kwiindleko ze-2026, njengoko ii-EAFs zigunyazisiwe kwaye ixabiso leekhredithi zekhabhoni lenza uphawu lwayo lwe-DAPU Metal Materials.
• I-Infrastructure Mega-Projects: ihlabathi I-Steel Association iqikelele malunga ne-4.2% kwi-CAGR ye-stainless imfuno kude kube malunga ne-2028 ngenxa yeziseko zamanzi kunye nothungelwano lwemibhobho ye-hydrogen kunye ne-DAPU Metal Materials.
• Udibaniso lonikezelo: Umgaqo-nkqubo we-China we-carbon-carbon uvale ukuya kwi-15% yamandla angasebenziyo, kwaye ngaphezulu kuya kuvalwa ngo-2027. I-DAPU Metal Materials iphinda ixoxe ngemigangatho yexabiso.
• I-EV kunye neMfuno yaMandla aVuselelekayo: Iziqhoboshi zeBattery-stainless stainless kunye ne-fuel cell components zithwala iipremiyamu zodidi olulodwa.

Uqikelelo lwabaHlalutyi baMashishini:

• Inkonzo ye-CRU Stainless Steel (Okthobha 2025)—Ukuba umntu uqikelele ukunyuka kwexabiso nge-6–9% ngo-2027, kulandela iindleko ze-decarbonization kunye ne-Asian capacity rationalization.
• Imakethi yentsimbi kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwi-261.5 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2033 kwi-CAGR ye-5.04% ngexesha lika-2025-2033 njengoko kuqikelelwe liQela le-IMARC.

Iingcebiso zokuthenga kunye neeNgcaciso zokuCwangcisa umngcipheko

IiNgcebiso zokuSebenza eziNgcono

Ubuncinane boMyinge woMyalelo (MOQs):

• I-10-25 yeetoni (umthwalo ogcweleyo wesikhongozeli): Ngqo ukusuka Mills
• 500 kg -2 iitoni: Abasasazi/amaZiko eeNkonzo
• 5-10 iitoni: AmaBanga awodwa (Duplex, Super Duplex)

Amaxesha okukhokela:

• Iiveki ezi-4-8 zangaphambili: amaBanga aPhakathi (304/316)
• Iiveki ze-8-12: Iidayamitha/ukugqiba ngokwesiko
• Yongeza iiveki ze-6-8 ukuthumela i-US / EU: Iikhredithi: Ukungenisa kwe-Asia kwi-US / EU

Immimiselo yokuhlawula:

• 30% idiphozithi, ibhalansi ngokuchasene nekopi ye-B/L: Ukuthenga indawo ukuba umtsha
• Intsalela yeentsuku ezingama-30-60 ngokuvunywa kwetyala: Abathengi abamiselweyo
• Uphononongo lwamaxabiso ngekota kunye namagatya okunyuka kwesiseko: Izivumelwano ezinkulu

Ulawulo loMngcipheko wexabiso

• Ukuxhoma kwi-LME Nickel Futures: Kububulumko ukubiyela malunga ne-60–70% yokuvezwa kwizibonelelo ze-nickel usebenzisa iikhontrakthi ze-LME zeenyanga ezi-3 kuba i-nickel ibandakanya malunga ne-35-45% yeendleko zokuvelisa i-austenitic stainless rod.
• Ngokusisiseko ilingana neekhontrakthi zokuthenga kwangaphambili: ngokuqhelekileyo, ngexesha leenqanawa zexabiso, kukho ukhetho lokuxoxisana ne-6 kwiikhontrakthi zokuhlengahlengiswa kweenyanga ze-12 kunye ne-mills kwimeko yangoku yemarike (Nov 2025) yokubamba iincwadi ze-H1 2026.
• Iintlobo ngeentlobo zababoneleli: Ukusebenzelana kungabekwa ngokukhethwayo kunye ne-40% ye-Asia-based suppliers ukuze kulinganiswe iindleko kunye nokomelela kwekhonkco lobonelelo, i-30% kwii-Mill zase-US (ixesha eliphambili), kunye ne-30% eYurophu (umgangatho).
• Amaxabiso aNxulunyaniswe neSalathisi: Abapapashi bezalathisi ezidityaniswe nexabiso lenickel/chrome (njengentlawulo eyongezelelweyo ye-Allegheny Ludlum kwiikontraki zaseMntla Melika) baqikelelwa njengezona zinto ziphambili.

Ukuqinisekiswa koMgangatho iiFlegi eziBomvu

Iimpawu eziSilumkiso zeMathiriyeli engeyiyo eyiyo okanye yoMgangatho oPhantsi:

• Intengo: Nantoni na engaphezulu kwe-15% ngaphantsi kwebenchmark yexabiso lengingqi luphawu oluqinisekisiweyo lokuba izinto eziphathekayo azikho-spec.
• Iziqinisekiso: Abo bathi ngabom babambe iziqinisekiso zovavanyo lokusila (ii-MTCs) ezibonisa ukulandeleka kwenombolo yobushushu basebenzisa kakubi i-ISO 10474 3.1 izatifikethi.
• Ummandla: Ukunyuka okugqithisileyo, ukugoba, okanye ukujika kombala kusoloko kuthetha ngonyango lobushushu obungafanelekanga
• Imagnethi: Ingcebiso yemagnethi ilungile, ngaphandle kokuba ibuthathaka kuthotho lwe-304/316; akufuneki ibe yi-ferromagnetic
• Uvavanyo lwe-PMI: Uvavanyo lohlalutyo lwe-XRF oluphathwa ngesandla luyimfuneko xa lufunyenwe; qinisekisa i-Ni/Cr/Mo ukuze ihambelane nengcaciso enikiweyo

Iprothokholi yoVavanyo iyacetyiswa:

• Ukuskena kwe-PMI (100% yobushushu)
• UkuJonga ukuNyamezelwa koMda (Dimensional Tolerance Check) (Isampulu eRandom-5% yamalungu)
• Uvavanyo loBulukhuni (ngokwe-ASTM E18-spot check)
• Uvavanyo lwe-tensile (ukuqinisekiswa kwebhetshi yekota kwizicelo ezibalulekileyo)

IiNgqwalasela zeXesha eliCwangcisiweyo

Ukuma kweMarike yangoku (Novemba 2025):
Amaxabiso e-nickel ahlala esondele kwiinyanga ezingama-24 kunye nemfuno ebuthathaka; Ngoko ke, abathengi banokujonga uluhlu lwempahla olunokubakho lwesicwangciso sekota yesibini ka-2006, kulandela ukuphinda kuphindaphindeke okuqhelekileyo kumsebenzi wonyaka we-ferro-nickel. Ngokuqhawuka kwangethuba, ingqondo iya kuhlala ukuba amaxabiso aphule i-16,500 yeedola ngetoni nganye.

isikhanyeli: Yonke idatha yamaxabiso ibonisa iimeko zemarike ukususela phakathi kuNovemba 2025 kwaye ingatshintsha. Olu hlalutyo lwenzelwe iinjongo zolwazi kwaye alubandakanyi kutyalo-mali, ukuthenga, okanye iingcebiso zorhwebo. Soloko uqhuba inkuthalo ezimeleyo kwaye udibane neengcali eziqeqeshiweyo phambi kokuba wenze izigqibo zokuthenga.